Navy +14 1.1% Free Pick
This is the largest spread in the Commander IN Chief series between these two teams since 2013 when navy was a 13.5 point favorite. The total here opened 34.5, and I just don’t think the spread should be this large when you factor in the strength of schedules here. Navy’s opponent YPP differential is +0.5, while Air Force’s is -2.35, so obviously different results. Navy also lost to Delaware to open the season, but Delaware is #6 FCS team. These two know the triple option, which is why they are normally close games, and Navy is actually far better this year defending the run ranking 7th in EPA compared to Air Force who ranks 96th in epa run defense. This should be another fun low scoring game between these two service academies, and I think 14 points is just far too many.
